{"F": {"ts_code": "002110.SZ", "name": "三钢闽光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "长材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.04, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3855, "dv_ttm": 0.3289, "total_mv": 738439.1648, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.7, 12.3, 5.5, 5.3, 4.3, 6.7], "rev_series": [486.4, 627.5, 516.6, 479.4, 460.6, 430.3], "np_series": [25.6, 39.8, 1.4, -6.7, -12.8, 0.3], "roe_series": [13.1, 18.3, 0.6, -3.2, -6.5, 0.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 439.4, "np_ttm": -3.0, "ocf_ttm": 29.4, "fcf_ttm": 18.0, "fcf_yield": 24.4, "ocf_yield": 39.9, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 0.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.6, "fix_assets": 302.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.39, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 212.0, "debt_ebitda": 11.0, "debt_ratio": 62.5, "debt_mv": 287.0, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.9, "np_cagr3": -42.0, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": -239.2, "np_vol": 242.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 30.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 200.0, "peg": 0.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["建材", 16.0], ["外购钢材", 9.0], ["制品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.3, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -30.6, "ret_pivot": 16.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -30.8, "ret_250": -33.0, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 33.9, "pos_52w": 62.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 23, "hard": 94, "bondness": 72}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 59%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 59%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 24.4%(经营现金流/市值 39.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 4% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "三钢闽光:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}