{"F": {"ts_code": "002109.SZ", "name": "ST兴化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9164, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 357355.572, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.0, 27.1, 19.0, -2.7, 0.7, -6.4], "rev_series": [19.4, 28.4, 32.6, 35.7, 40.6, 35.5], "np_series": [2.1, 5.4, 3.9, -4.1, -4.4, -5.2], "roe_series": [5.6, 12.8, 8.6, -8.6, -9.3, -12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.9, "np_ttm": -3.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 0.7, "gm_std": 13.1, "gm_stab": -17.74, "gm_chg_2022": 0.0, "npm_median": -11.8, "roe_median": -8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 79.8, "fix_assets": 81.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.92, "capex_dep": 0.41, "interest_debt": 42.5, "debt_ebitda": 12.7, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 118.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.0, "np_yoy": 85.5, "np_vol": 113.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["乙醇", 23.0], ["液氨", 7.0], ["商品液氨", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.0, "ret_prev2_year": -33.1, "ret_ytd": -21.1, "ret_pivot": 14.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": 2.6, "ret_120": -45.9, "ret_250": -30.5, "mdd_250": -55.1, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 53.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 100, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 80%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 0.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 12.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 80%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 0.7%,稳定度 -1774%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 0.7%,稳定度 -1774%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 80%,资本开支/折旧 0.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 3% / -46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "ST兴化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.4个百分点。"]}}