{"F": {"ts_code": "002108.SZ", "name": "沧州明珠", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070124", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.34, "pe_ttm": 35.3623, "pb": 1.4088, "dv_ttm": 1.1521, "total_mv": 715491.6188, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 20.9, 16.7, 14.5, 11.2, 12.4], "rev_series": [27.6, 28.9, 28.3, 26.2, 27.5, 28.5], "np_series": [3.0, 3.7, 2.8, 2.7, 1.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [8.9, 10.2, 6.4, 5.3, 3.0, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": -7.7, "fcf_yield": -10.8, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 14.5, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.6, "fix_assets": 43.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.41, "capex_dep": 3.46, "interest_debt": 30.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 41.9, "debt_mv": 42.2, "payout": 61.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": -18.2, "rev_yoy": 20.4, "np_yoy": 58.9, "np_vol": 22.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["尼龙薄膜", 16.0], ["燃气、给水管管材、管件", 14.0], ["燃气、给水管、给水管件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.2, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": -8.1, "ret_pivot": 52.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.5, "ret_60": -5.2, "ret_120": -13.7, "ret_250": 12.4, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 45.9, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 39, "hard": 76, "bondness": 63}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 3.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.4 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -5% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "沧州明珠:PE 比行业中位低 5.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.7个百分点。"]}}