{"F": {"ts_code": "002106.SZ", "name": "莱宝高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.72, "pe_ttm": 47.7572, "pb": 1.3504, "dv_ttm": 0.9328, "total_mv": 756634.8592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.2, 14.5, 12.2, 15.4, 16.2, 15.0], "rev_series": [67.5, 76.8, 61.5, 55.9, 59.0, 59.9], "np_series": [4.4, 4.9, 3.7, 3.8, 3.7, 2.5], "roe_series": [10.3, 10.8, 7.6, 7.4, 7.0, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 57.1, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": -33.7, "fcf_yield": -44.5, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.5, "fix_assets": 65.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 21.71, "interest_debt": 18.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 47.4, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": 28.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.9, "np_cagr3": -12.6, "rev_yoy": -8.8, "np_yoy": -47.7, "np_vol": 17.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["显示材料及触控器件", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": 5.1, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 45.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -14.2, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": -5.9, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 44, "hard": 90, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -44.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 21.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -14% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "莱宝高科:PE 比行业中位低 13.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.1个百分点。"]}}