{"F": {"ts_code": "002104.SZ", "name": "恒宝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.05, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.7308, "dv_ttm": 0.2363, "total_mv": 995231.8905, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 24.9, 28.0, 31.2, 32.8, 29.1], "rev_series": [10.5, 9.6, 10.3, 12.6, 9.0, 8.7], "np_series": [0.0, 0.5, 0.8, 1.6, 1.0, 0.6], "roe_series": [0.1, 2.8, 4.3, 7.7, 4.4, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 29.1, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.6, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.73, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 8.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 57.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": -10.5, "rev_yoy": -32.8, "np_yoy": -229.5, "np_vol": 1185.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["卡类", 22.0], ["制卡类", 22.0], ["模块类", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 224.6, "ret_prev2_year": -10.6, "ret_ytd": -34.9, "ret_pivot": 160.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.9, "ret_60": 26.5, "ret_120": -18.5, "ret_250": -52.6, "mdd_250": -69.2, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 47.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 20, "bondness": 44}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 9%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -53%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 26% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "恒宝股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}