{"F": {"ts_code": "002103.SZ", "name": "广博股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "文化用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.86, "pe_ttm": 26.5135, "pb": 2.8244, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 366511.278, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.6, 11.9, 14.0, 14.7, 15.9, 16.8], "rev_series": [25.9, 28.4, 24.9, 26.9, 27.8, 27.5], "np_series": [-2.4, 0.2, -0.4, 1.7, 1.5, 1.6], "roe_series": [-26.1, 2.3, -4.6, 19.7, 15.2, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.1, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.5, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 4.85, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 39.7, "debt_mv": 7.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.2, "np_yoy": -34.6, "np_vol": 280.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 18.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["办公直销类", 29.0], ["办公直销", 29.0], ["办公用品类", 15.0], ["办公用品", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.5, "ret_prev2_year": 18.0, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": -36.7, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 31.7, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 47, "hard": 33, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.5 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 4.85 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.5 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 8% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "广博股份:PE 比行业中位低 21.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}