{"F": {"ts_code": "002101.SZ", "name": "广东鸿图", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.73, "pe_ttm": 20.0913, "pb": 0.7374, "dv_ttm": 2.8866, "total_mv": 578644.479, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.2, 20.1, 19.6, 19.0, 15.6, 14.4], "rev_series": [56.0, 60.0, 66.7, 76.1, 80.5, 92.0], "np_series": [1.6, 3.0, 4.7, 4.2, 4.2, 3.6], "roe_series": [3.5, 6.4, 9.5, 6.7, 5.4, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 91.1, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 15.1, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.2, "fix_assets": 44.5, "goodwill_ratio": 5.6, "pb_calc": 0.74, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 10.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 43.3, "debt_mv": 18.9, "payout": 45.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.3, "np_cagr3": -8.0, "rev_yoy": -2.0, "np_yoy": -65.1, "np_vol": 41.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铝铸件", 38.0], ["注塑件", 12.0], ["其他配件", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.7, "ret_prev2_year": -20.4, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": -10.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -24.8, "ret_250": -34.9, "mdd_250": -44.4, "vol_250": 27.8, "pos_52w": 60.2}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 46, "hard": 50, "bondness": 45}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 15.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.1 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 7% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "广东鸿图:PE 比行业中位低 10.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}