{"F": {"ts_code": "002098.SZ", "name": "浔兴股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "辅料", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.99, "pe_ttm": 14.063, "pb": 1.8155, "dv_ttm": 1.2516, "total_mv": 286042.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 33.1, 30.4, 32.6, 33.4, 33.3], "rev_series": [15.9, 22.6, 21.1, 20.5, 26.3, 27.7], "np_series": [2.0, 1.3, 0.8, 1.2, 2.0, 2.1], "roe_series": [27.9, 14.3, 8.3, 11.1, 16.3, 14.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 11.2, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 14.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 3.17, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 36.0, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": 17.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": 36.1, "rev_yoy": 3.6, "np_yoy": -2.0, "np_vol": 42.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["条装拉链", 28.0], ["跨境电商销售", 7.0], ["跨境电商产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.8, "ret_prev2_year": 22.3, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 19.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.1, "ret_60": 15.8, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 55, "hard": 56, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.1 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 35%、毛利率 33.1% 两条都占,但所在行业(纺织服饰)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 11.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 3.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.1 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 16% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "浔兴股份:PE 比行业中位低 9.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点。"]}}