{"F": {"ts_code": "002097.SZ", "name": "山河智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.48, "pe_ttm": 171.3188, "pb": 1.7407, "dv_ttm": 0.3075, "total_mv": 803813.6656, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.7, 23.2, 21.4, 28.1, 28.7, 29.5], "rev_series": [93.8, 114.1, 73.7, 72.3, 71.2, 73.1], "np_series": [5.6, 3.2, -10.9, 0.5, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [10.5, 5.7, -21.8, 1.1, 1.6, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 75.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 28.1, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.8, "fix_assets": 59.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 101.8, "debt_ebitda": 14.5, "debt_ratio": 76.0, "debt_mv": 126.6, "payout": 29.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": -74.7, "np_vol": 200.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["挖掘机机械", 18.0], ["地下工程机械", 9.0], ["航空业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.1, "ret_prev2_year": 23.5, "ret_ytd": -39.6, "ret_pivot": 38.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": -31.2, "ret_250": -55.0, "mdd_250": -59.5, "vol_250": 35.4, "pos_52w": 45.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 49, "hard": 44, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 171.3 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 14.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 171.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -55%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -7% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "山河智能:PE 比行业中位高 143.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}