{"F": {"ts_code": "002091.SZ", "name": "江苏国泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "贸易Ⅱ", "sw3": "贸易Ⅲ", "ind": "贸易Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.71, "pe_ttm": 10.3032, "pb": 0.8008, "dv_ttm": 6.0958, "total_mv": 1254978.1338, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 12.3, 14.4, 16.8, 14.9, 16.2], "rev_series": [301.0, 393.4, 427.6, 371.2, 388.9, 393.9], "np_series": [9.8, 12.4, 17.2, 16.0, 11.1, 12.9], "roe_series": [11.1, 12.5, 14.0, 10.9, 7.2, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 405.9, "np_ttm": 12.2, "ocf_ttm": 23.0, "fcf_ttm": 13.5, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 18.3, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 52.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.78, "capex_dep": 1.94, "interest_debt": 90.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 50.4, "debt_mv": 72.3, "payout": 58.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.7, "np_cagr3": -9.1, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": -13.9, "np_vol": 25.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 51.0, "earn_yield": 9.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 9.8, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纺织服装、玩具等出口贸易", 39.0], ["出口贸易", 39.0], ["纺织服装、玩具等进口及国内贸易", 7.0], ["国内贸易", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.7, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": 33.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -2.3, "mdd_250": -30.3, "vol_250": 35.1, "pos_52w": 75.7}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 45, "hard": 18, "bondness": 78}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 6.1%、营收 3 年复合 -2.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 18.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.3 倍 粗算,约 51%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贸易Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 12.4 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 4.7% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 59%。", "江苏国泰:PE 比行业中位低 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}