{"F": {"ts_code": "002088.SZ", "name": "鲁阳节能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "耐火材料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.99, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7085, "dv_ttm": 3.7561, "total_mv": 407042.7198, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 34.7, 32.8, 31.0, 30.6, 24.2], "rev_series": [23.3, 31.6, 33.7, 35.2, 35.3, 24.8], "np_series": [3.7, 5.3, 5.8, 4.9, 4.8, 0.4], "roe_series": [16.2, 21.3, 21.1, 17.3, 16.8, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.5, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 31.0, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 17.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.71, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 21.7, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 85.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.7, "np_cagr3": -58.1, "rev_yoy": -19.3, "np_yoy": -92.6, "np_vol": 44.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["陶瓷纤维制品", 29.0], ["陶瓷纤维", 29.0], ["工业过滤制品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.0, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": -8.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": -31.7, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 59.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 33, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 85%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 -9.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.0%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "鲁阳节能:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}