{"F": {"ts_code": "002083.SZ", "name": "孚日股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "棉纺", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061124", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.9, "pe_ttm": 16.0004, "pb": 1.938, "dv_ttm": 2.9039, "total_mv": 937172.61, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.8, 16.6, 12.6, 16.5, 18.3, 20.9], "rev_series": [44.3, 51.6, 52.5, 53.4, 53.5, 52.1], "np_series": [2.2, 2.7, 2.0, 2.9, 3.5, 4.3], "roe_series": [6.1, 7.3, 5.4, 7.5, 8.3, 9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.4, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 7.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 8.5, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.6, "fix_assets": 31.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 18.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 37.4, "debt_mv": 19.9, "payout": 63.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": 28.2, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": 64.0, "np_vol": 22.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["毛巾系列产品", 32.0], ["毛巾系列", 32.0], ["新能源产品", 6.0], ["热电产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 161.3, "ret_prev2_year": 2.3, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 161.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.5, "ret_60": 13.7, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": 109.3, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 71.1, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 41, "hard": 65, "bondness": 65}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.0 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 109%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / 14% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "孚日股份:PE 比行业中位低 7.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}