{"F": {"ts_code": "002081.SZ", "name": "金螳螂", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "sw3": "装修装饰Ⅲ", "ind": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.18, "pe_ttm": 34.9653, "pb": 1.0045, "dv_ttm": 2.5097, "total_mv": 1375457.6766, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 16.1, 15.8, 14.8, 13.8, 12.7], "rev_series": [312.4, 253.7, 218.1, 201.9, 183.3, 173.1], "np_series": [23.7, -49.5, 12.7, 10.2, 5.4, 4.4], "roe_series": [14.8, -35.2, 10.8, 7.9, 4.0, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 158.7, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 14.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 12.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 56.0, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 48.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.4, "np_cagr3": -29.6, "rev_yoy": -15.1, "np_yoy": -14.1, "np_vol": 141.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 34.5, "fwd_pe2": 37.0, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": -7.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["装饰", 41.0], ["幕墙", 4.0], ["设计", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.6, "ret_ytd": 57.4, "ret_pivot": 91.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 31.1, "ret_60": -3.2, "ret_120": 47.6, "ret_250": 48.4, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 65.5, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 46, "hard": 6, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.0 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.0 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / -3% / 48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修装饰Ⅱ」22 家中位:PE 49.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 12.9% / 固定资产占比 8% / 分红率 28%。", "金螳螂:PE 比行业中位低 14.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}