{"F": {"ts_code": "002079.SZ", "name": "苏州固锝", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏辅材", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.9, "pe_ttm": 75.5442, "pb": 1.9985, "dv_ttm": 0.191, "total_mv": 808554.765, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 19.0, 17.2, 14.4, 10.2, 10.9], "rev_series": [18.0, 24.8, 32.7, 40.9, 56.4, 39.6], "np_series": [0.9, 2.2, 3.7, 1.5, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [5.0, 10.1, 14.5, 5.4, 2.5, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 14.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 18.5, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": -41.7, "rev_yoy": 29.1, "np_yoy": 76.9, "np_vol": 75.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["新能源材料", 39.0], ["半导体", 10.0], ["其他业务收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.8, "ret_prev2_year": -8.7, "ret_ytd": -6.6, "ret_pivot": 11.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -25.1, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -16.3, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 40, "hard": 25, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 75.5 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -25% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "苏州固锝:PE 比行业中位高 34.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点。"]}}