{"F": {"ts_code": "002078.SZ", "name": "太阳纸业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.78, "pe_ttm": 12.3295, "pb": 1.3379, "dv_ttm": 1.9873, "total_mv": 4218485.5778, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.4, 17.4, 15.2, 15.9, 16.0, 15.6], "rev_series": [215.9, 320.0, 397.7, 395.4, 407.3, 391.9], "np_series": [19.5, 29.6, 28.1, 30.9, 31.0, 32.5], "roe_series": [12.7, 17.0, 13.4, 12.6, 11.3, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 409.4, "np_ttm": 34.2, "ocf_ttm": 64.3, "fcf_ttm": -7.6, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.4, "fix_assets": 427.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 2.74, "interest_debt": 213.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 47.9, "debt_mv": 50.5, "payout": 27.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.5, "np_cagr3": 5.0, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 9.6, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 59.0, "earn_yield": 8.1, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 11.0, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["造纸业务", 21.0], ["造纸业务：牛皮箱板纸", 9.0], ["牛皮箱板纸", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.0, "ret_prev2_year": 26.6, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 27.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 12.3, "ret_120": -8.2, "ret_250": 2.2, "mdd_250": -31.4, "vol_250": 28.8, "pos_52w": 85.8}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 45, "hard": 100, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 70%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 70%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 2.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.3 倍 粗算,约 59%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 12% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "太阳纸业:PE 比行业中位低 9.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点。"]}}