{"F": {"ts_code": "002075.SZ", "name": "沙钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.7, "pe_ttm": 32.6083, "pb": 1.2202, "dv_ttm": 1.3514, "total_mv": 811715.398, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.0, 17.9, 8.6, 5.9, 4.8, 9.1], "rev_series": [144.3, 184.9, 181.7, 153.6, 144.2, 131.2], "np_series": [6.5, 11.1, 4.5, 1.9, 1.6, 2.7], "roe_series": [12.7, 19.6, 7.2, 3.0, 2.5, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 129.9, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.8, "fix_assets": 64.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 0.93, "interest_debt": 96.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.6, "debt_ratio": 56.5, "debt_mv": 118.5, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": -16.1, "rev_yoy": -1.9, "np_yoy": -11.9, "np_vol": 57.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["棒材", 77.0], ["钢坯", 10.0], ["其他销售", 6.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 68.5, "ret_ytd": -35.4, "ret_pivot": -18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -31.3, "ret_250": -42.0, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 33.6, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 25, "hard": 43, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.6 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.93 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.6 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 8% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "沙钢股份:PE 比行业中位高 17.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}