{"F": {"ts_code": "002074.SZ", "name": "国轩高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.95, "pe_ttm": 13.8397, "pb": 1.5628, "dv_ttm": 0.385, "total_mv": 4709212.2625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 18.6, 17.8, 16.9, 18.0, 16.2], "rev_series": [67.2, 103.6, 230.5, 316.1, 353.9, 450.7], "np_series": [1.5, 1.0, 3.1, 9.4, 12.1, 23.8], "roe_series": [1.5, 0.7, 1.5, 3.9, 4.7, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 534.5, "np_ttm": 34.0, "ocf_ttm": 37.3, "fcf_ttm": -122.9, "fcf_yield": -26.1, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.0, "fix_assets": 616.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 4.55, "interest_debt": 576.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 71.7, "debt_mv": 122.4, "payout": 14.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 25.0, "np_cagr3": 97.0, "rev_yoy": 43.2, "np_yoy": 278.1, "np_vol": 93.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.2, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 25.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.0, "fwd_g1": -45.0, "fwd_g2": 48.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["动力电池系统产品", 28.0], ["动力电池系统", 28.0], ["电池储能", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.8, "ret_ytd": -33.5, "ret_pivot": 45.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -8.1, "ret_120": -32.8, "ret_250": -19.0, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 52.7}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 46, "hard": 69, "bondness": 22}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -26.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 4.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.8 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -8% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "国轩高科:PE 比行业中位低 22.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点。"]}}