{"F": {"ts_code": "002072.SZ", "name": "凯瑞德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "贸易Ⅱ", "sw3": "贸易Ⅲ", "ind": "贸易Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 14.3905, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 327235.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [91.3, 24.6, 3.1, 5.4, 3.2, 1.1], "rev_series": [0.3, 1.3, 3.6, 3.4, 6.3, 4.6], "np_series": [-2.0, 0.1, -0.1, 0.0, -0.0, -0.2], "roe_series": [null, null, -18.1, 3.6, -3.4, -15.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 3.2, "gm_std": 8.7, "gm_stab": -1.71, "gm_chg_2022": -88.2, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.39, "capex_dep": 2.21, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 10.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 59.9, "np_vol": 460.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["矿产品", 33.0], ["煤炭", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.0, "ret_prev2_year": -31.4, "ret_ytd": 22.9, "ret_pivot": 110.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.8, "ret_60": 1.3, "ret_120": 20.1, "ret_250": 20.3, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 92.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 0, "bondness": 14}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 -171%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -88.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 2.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 1% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贸易Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 12.4 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 4.7% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 59%。", "凯瑞德:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}