{"F": {"ts_code": "002069.SZ", "name": "獐子岛", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "渔业", "sw3": "水产养殖", "ind": "渔业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 93.9779, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 269511.5238, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 14.8, 16.4, 17.4, 11.2, 15.9], "rev_series": [19.3, 20.8, 20.2, 16.8, 15.8, 12.8], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.1, -0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [208.6, 26.2, 7.2, 12.0, -33.8, -24.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.4, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 93.98, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 19.2, "debt_ebitda": 22.1, "debt_ratio": 97.0, "debt_mv": 71.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -14.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.3, "np_yoy": 26.8, "np_vol": 162.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["其他", 41.0], ["其他主营业务", 39.0], ["海参", 9.0], ["虾夷扇贝", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.6, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": 1.6, "ret_pivot": 46.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.7, "ret_60": 17.7, "ret_120": -0.5, "ret_250": -13.1, "mdd_250": -43.5, "vol_250": 38.3, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 26, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 97%,有息负债 19 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 18% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「渔业」6 家中位:PE 108.6 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.9% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 31%。", "獐子岛:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.7个百分点。"]}}