{"F": {"ts_code": "002068.SZ", "name": "黑猫股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "炭黑", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4248, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 598570.9928, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.6, 12.8, 4.2, 2.6, 5.0, 1.6], "rev_series": [55.6, 79.3, 98.9, 94.5, 101.3, 86.9], "np_series": [1.0, 4.3, 0.1, -2.4, 0.3, -4.6], "roe_series": [3.3, 13.8, 0.3, -7.7, 0.8, -17.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.1, "np_ttm": -4.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 4.2, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.06, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.7, "fix_assets": 35.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 36.6, "debt_ebitda": 179.0, "debt_ratio": 69.6, "debt_mv": 61.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -4.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.0, "np_yoy": 7.5, "np_vol": 1259.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 43.6, "fwd_pe2": 24.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 80.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["炭黑", 34.0], ["焦油精制产品", 8.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.3, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 51.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.0, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": -19.8, "ret_250": -30.0, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 53.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 65, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 179.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.2%,稳定度 6%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.2%,稳定度 6%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -18% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "黑猫股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}