{"F": {"ts_code": "002067.SZ", "name": "景兴纸业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.12, "pe_ttm": 43.5168, "pb": 0.895, "dv_ttm": 0.2427, "total_mv": 607639.8068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 14.9, 5.3, 6.0, 7.0, 6.5], "rev_series": [48.7, 62.2, 62.3, 54.6, 54.8, 60.1], "np_series": [3.1, 4.4, 1.2, 0.9, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [6.8, 8.7, 2.1, 1.6, 1.3, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 10.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": 17.5, "gm_median": 6.5, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.46, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.4, "fix_assets": 53.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 3.88, "interest_debt": 24.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 33.1, "debt_mv": 39.8, "payout": 28.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -22.2, "rev_yoy": 20.2, "np_yoy": 153.0, "np_vol": 36.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["原纸", 33.0], ["再生浆板", 6.0], ["生活用纸", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.8, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -27.0, "ret_pivot": 53.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": 0.5, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -5.3, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 23, "hard": 84, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.5%,稳定度 46%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 17.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.5%,稳定度 46%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 3.88 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 0% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "景兴纸业:PE 比行业中位高 22.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}