{"F": {"ts_code": "002064.SZ", "name": "华峰化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "氨纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.22, "pe_ttm": 19.4886, "pb": 1.9348, "dv_ttm": 1.3369, "total_mv": 5567974.2558, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.8, 38.7, 17.9, 15.3, 13.8, 13.2], "rev_series": [147.2, 283.7, 258.8, 263.0, 269.3, 242.0], "np_series": [22.8, 79.4, 28.4, 24.8, 22.2, 18.6], "roe_series": [23.6, 51.9, 13.5, 10.3, 8.6, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 262.3, "np_ttm": 28.6, "ocf_ttm": 37.6, "fcf_ttm": 22.2, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.1, "fix_assets": 126.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.93, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 20.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 24.7, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.2, "np_cagr3": -13.2, "rev_yoy": 16.7, "np_yoy": 101.6, "np_vol": 111.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 15.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["基础化工产品", 27.0], ["基础化工", 27.0], ["化学纤维", 27.0], ["化工新材料", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.3, "ret_prev2_year": 25.9, "ret_ytd": 2.9, "ret_pivot": 74.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": 13.8, "ret_120": 5.8, "ret_250": 44.4, "mdd_250": -31.3, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 82.1}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 24, "hard": 53, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 37%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.5 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 14% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "华峰化学:PE 比行业中位低 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点。"]}}