{"F": {"ts_code": "002059.SZ", "name": "云南旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "人工景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.0299, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 574050.5316, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 20.4, -0.8, 3.3, -2.2, -5.2], "rev_series": [18.1, 14.2, 5.4, 7.2, 5.6, 3.5], "np_series": [1.6, -3.3, -2.8, -4.3, -0.3, -3.3], "roe_series": [6.7, -14.4, -14.3, -25.7, -2.0, -26.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": -3.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": -0.8, "gm_std": 9.1, "gm_stab": 12.37, "gm_chg_2022": -26.2, "npm_median": -57.7, "roe_median": -14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.6, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.03, "capex_dep": 0.32, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 66.6, "debt_mv": 9.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -13.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -52.9, "np_yoy": -43.8, "np_vol": 425.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["景区经营", 81.0], ["景区板块", 81.0], ["交通运输", 72.0], ["旅行社", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.6, "ret_ytd": 5.4, "ret_pivot": 20.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.7, "ret_60": 25.2, "ret_120": 11.4, "ret_250": 8.0, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 55, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -0.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.2 个百分点;资产负债率 67%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.8%,稳定度 1237%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.8%,稳定度 1237%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 25% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "云南旅游:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 33.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}