{"F": {"ts_code": "002054.SZ", "name": "德美化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060725", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.29, "pe_ttm": 21.0036, "pb": 1.3343, "dv_ttm": 0.9595, "total_mv": 351462.1995, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 33.1, 23.2, 21.5, 23.8, 26.7], "rev_series": [16.3, 20.0, 32.7, 30.8, 30.6, 30.0], "np_series": [1.2, 2.1, 0.9, 0.3, 0.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [6.1, 9.5, 3.5, 1.2, 2.5, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.1, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -13.0, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.6, "fix_assets": 28.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 26.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 49.7, "debt_mv": 74.4, "payout": 54.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": 11.0, "rev_yoy": 28.0, "np_yoy": 102.6, "np_vol": 75.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纺织化学品", 33.0], ["纺织助剂", 33.0], ["石油化学品", 26.0], ["皮革化学品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.9, "ret_prev2_year": -14.0, "ret_ytd": -0.3, "ret_pivot": 65.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": 8.6, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 45, "hard": 68, "bondness": 58}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.0 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.0 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "德美化工:PE 比行业中位低 14.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}