{"F": {"ts_code": "002053.SZ", "name": "云南能投", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.43, "pe_ttm": 37.3661, "pb": 1.1403, "dv_ttm": 1.3786, "total_mv": 868247.9185, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.1, 40.5, 39.8, 41.5, 41.6, 31.9], "rev_series": [19.9, 22.6, 26.1, 29.0, 34.5, 24.9], "np_series": [2.3, 2.5, 2.9, 4.8, 6.8, 2.4], "roe_series": [5.7, 5.9, 5.3, 7.2, 9.4, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.0, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 15.9, "fcf_ttm": -10.1, "fcf_yield": -11.6, "ocf_yield": 18.3, "gm_median": 40.5, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.4, "fix_assets": 112.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 4.7, "interest_debt": 75.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.5, "debt_ratio": 54.3, "debt_mv": 86.8, "payout": 45.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": -6.8, "rev_yoy": -24.5, "np_yoy": -1.3, "np_vol": 46.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 12.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 201.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["风电", 20.0], ["风力发电", 20.0], ["盐硝产品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.1, "ret_prev2_year": 21.6, "ret_ytd": -17.2, "ret_pivot": -0.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -9.4, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -15.0, "mdd_250": -41.5, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 63.5}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 56, "hard": 100, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.4 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%、固定资产占比 66%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 66%、毛利率 40.5% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.6%(经营现金流/市值 18.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 4.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -9% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "云南能投:PE 比行业中位高 9.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}