{"F": {"ts_code": "002051.SZ", "name": "中工国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "国际工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.54, "pe_ttm": 39.158, "pb": 0.9125, "dv_ttm": 1.2905, "total_mv": 1047416.5674, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.2, 15.6, 13.9, 15.9, 17.5, 17.5], "rev_series": [79.7, 86.4, 97.2, 123.7, 122.1, 115.7], "np_series": [-0.8, 2.8, 3.3, 3.6, 3.6, 3.1], "roe_series": [-0.8, 2.7, 3.1, 3.3, 3.2, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 118.3, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_ttm": -11.6, "fcf_yield": -11.1, "ocf_yield": -3.2, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.6, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 6.41, "interest_debt": 20.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 52.6, "debt_mv": 19.5, "payout": 43.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": -2.0, "rev_yoy": 5.4, "np_yoy": -26.4, "np_vol": 173.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 33.5, "fwd_pe2": 30.2, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 3.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["国际工程承包", 57.0], ["设计咨询", 11.0], ["咨询设计", 11.0], ["关键核心装备研发与制造", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.1, "ret_prev2_year": 2.1, "ret_ytd": -4.7, "ret_pivot": 32.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.4, "ret_60": -26.3, "ret_120": -6.0, "ret_250": -3.3, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 54.1, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 44, "hard": 9, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.2 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.1%(经营现金流/市值 -3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 6.41 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.2 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -26% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "中工国际:PE 比行业中位低 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点。"]}}