{"F": {"ts_code": "002049.SZ", "name": "紫光国微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.08, "pe_ttm": 33.9283, "pb": 3.6974, "dv_ttm": 0.4975, "total_mv": 5234794.8096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.3, 59.5, 63.8, 61.2, 55.8, 55.6], "rev_series": [32.7, 53.4, 71.2, 75.7, 55.1, 61.5], "np_series": [8.1, 19.5, 26.3, 25.3, 11.8, 14.4], "roe_series": [17.6, 32.0, 31.1, 23.7, 9.8, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.4, "np_ttm": 15.4, "ocf_ttm": 11.2, "fcf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 59.5, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 11.5, "npm_median": 33.5, "roe_median": 23.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.5, "pb_calc": 3.65, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 18.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 25.6, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 18.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": -18.3, "rev_yoy": 13.0, "np_yoy": 15.3, "np_vol": 64.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 28.9, "fwd_pe2": 23.3, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["集成电路", 26.0], ["特种集成电路", 26.0], ["智能安全芯片", 20.0], ["智能卡芯片", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.9, "ret_prev2_year": -3.6, "ret_ytd": -20.9, "ret_pivot": 36.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.6, "ret_60": -12.7, "ret_120": -15.5, "ret_250": -23.9, "mdd_250": -34.0, "vol_250": 42.6, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 74, "hard": 6, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.9 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 59.5%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 59.5%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.9 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -13% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "紫光国微:PE 比行业中位低 47.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}