{"F": {"ts_code": "002047.SZ", "name": "宝鹰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "sw3": "装修装饰Ⅲ", "ind": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050531", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.43, "pe_ttm": 80.5932, "pb": 166.7678, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 520073.3041, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.1, 12.8, 7.6, 7.1, 5.2, 22.6], "rev_series": [59.5, 46.7, 37.3, 41.1, 21.1, 6.6], "np_series": [1.1, -16.5, -21.9, -9.7, -7.4, 0.6], "roe_series": [2.7, -49.2, -122.0, -169.4, -1754.3, 265.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 7.6, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.17, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": -35.2, "roe_median": -122.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.6, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 166.77, "capex_dep": 4.19, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 97.6, "debt_mv": 6.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -43.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -31.5, "np_yoy": 22.4, "np_vol": 652.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["建筑工程", 24.0], ["装饰装修施工", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.7, "ret_prev2_year": 7.3, "ret_ytd": -6.8, "ret_pivot": 130.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": -17.5, "ret_120": -41.2, "ret_250": 58.8, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 54.5, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 14, "hard": 31, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 81 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 98%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%,稳定度 17%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 4.19 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 80.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 59%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -18% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修装饰Ⅱ」22 家中位:PE 49.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 12.9% / 固定资产占比 8% / 分红率 28%。", "宝鹰股份:PE 比行业中位高 31.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}