{"F": {"ts_code": "002045.SZ", "name": "国光电器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "品牌消费电子", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2362, "dv_ttm": 0.1641, "total_mv": 514109.6448, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.5, 10.0, 12.3, 15.1, 13.3, 12.3], "rev_series": [42.5, 48.2, 59.9, 59.3, 79.0, 79.1], "np_series": [1.9, 0.4, 1.8, 3.6, 2.5, -1.1], "roe_series": [9.4, 2.0, 8.6, 11.8, 6.2, -2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.0, "np_ttm": -2.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.1, "fcf_yield": -9.8, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 16.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 2.94, "interest_debt": 42.7, "debt_ebitda": 140.0, "debt_ratio": 61.8, "debt_mv": 83.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 9.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.6, "np_yoy": -217.7, "np_vol": 173.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["音箱及扬声器", 39.0], ["其他业务", 4.0], ["电池", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -34.7, "ret_prev2_year": 30.3, "ret_ytd": -35.4, "ret_pivot": -17.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -47.5, "mdd_250": -60.6, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 49.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 24, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 43 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 9% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "国光电器:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点。"]}}