{"F": {"ts_code": "002044.SZ", "name": "美年健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医院", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.61, "pe_ttm": 55.6418, "pb": 2.2695, "dv_ttm": 0.1952, "total_mv": 1804471.0479, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.1, 39.4, 34.3, 42.8, 42.8, 41.4], "rev_series": [78.1, 91.6, 85.3, 108.9, 107.0, 103.6], "np_series": [5.5, 0.6, -5.3, 5.1, 2.8, 2.9], "roe_series": [7.2, 0.8, -6.9, 6.7, 3.6, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 100.9, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": 17.9, "fcf_ttm": 13.8, "fcf_yield": 7.7, "ocf_yield": 9.9, "gm_median": 41.4, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 15.8, "goodwill_ratio": 27.8, "pb_calc": 2.27, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 60.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 53.4, "debt_mv": 33.4, "payout": 14.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.4, "np_yoy": 17.6, "np_vol": 403.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 42.9, "fwd_pe2": 34.8, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["体检服务", 47.0], ["其他服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.4, "ret_prev2_year": -23.5, "ret_ytd": -12.5, "ret_pivot": 37.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": -25.4, "ret_250": -20.5, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 51.4, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 58, "hard": 13, "bondness": 28}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 41.4%,自由现金流/市值 7.7%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.4%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.7%(经营现金流/市值 9.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -5% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "美年健康:PE 比行业中位低 17.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点。"]}}