{"F": {"ts_code": "002042.SZ", "name": "华孚时尚", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "棉纺", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.92, "pe_ttm": 31.782, "pb": 1.0943, "dv_ttm": 0.285, "total_mv": 666667.1088, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.5, 9.6, 5.2, 4.2, 5.4, 9.2], "rev_series": [142.3, 167.1, 144.6, 136.6, 107.6, 80.5], "np_series": [-4.4, 5.7, -3.5, 0.7, -2.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [-7.5, 9.0, -5.3, 1.1, -3.5, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 77.0, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 5.4, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.1, "fix_assets": 50.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.09, "capex_dep": 1.19, "interest_debt": 92.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 65.4, "debt_mv": 139.4, "payout": 38.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -17.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": 607.1, "np_vol": 234.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["纱线", 38.0], ["物料", 6.0], ["棉业", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.6, "ret_prev2_year": 5.4, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 33.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -43.4, "vol_250": 43.7, "pos_52w": 66.5}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 34, "hard": 43, "bondness": 50}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 32 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 93 亿,经营现金流/市值 15.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.19 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 8% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "华孚时尚:PE 比行业中位高 8.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}