{"F": {"ts_code": "002041.SZ", "name": "登海种业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.98, "pe_ttm": 91.1061, "pb": 2.6042, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 966240.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 36.3, 31.9, 28.8, 28.1, 29.6], "rev_series": [9.0, 11.0, 13.3, 15.5, 12.5, 11.0], "np_series": [1.0, 2.3, 2.5, 2.6, 0.6, 0.9], "roe_series": [3.6, 7.8, 7.9, 7.4, 1.6, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 19.3, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 7.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 15.8, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 28.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -6.0, "np_cagr3": -28.7, "rev_yoy": 27.0, "np_yoy": 41.0, "np_vol": 68.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 64.6, "fwd_pe2": 52.3, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 2.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["玉米种", 47.0], ["蔬菜种子", 1.0], ["蔬菜种", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.2, "ret_prev2_year": -17.5, "ret_ytd": 15.1, "ret_pivot": 39.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.2, "ret_60": 34.2, "ret_120": -3.1, "ret_250": 9.1, "mdd_250": -36.1, "vol_250": 40.5, "pos_52w": 89.2}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 56, "hard": 24, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 91.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 64.6 倍,次年 52.3 倍,PEG 2.69。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 34% / -3%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "登海种业:PE 比行业中位高 19.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}