{"F": {"ts_code": "002040.SZ", "name": "南京港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050325", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.98, "pe_ttm": 22.1424, "pb": 1.239, "dv_ttm": 1.2918, "total_mv": 436495.7092, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.1, 48.0, 46.5, 45.7, 43.0, 48.1], "rev_series": [7.5, 8.0, 8.2, 9.4, 9.8, 10.2], "np_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7, 1.5, 1.8], "roe_series": [4.7, 5.1, 4.6, 5.4, 4.8, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 10.4, "gm_median": 46.5, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 21.6, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.4, "fix_assets": 27.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 22.7, "debt_mv": 18.0, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 10.3, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": 13.8, "np_vol": 12.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["集装箱装卸及服务收入", 37.0], ["化工产品装卸及服务收入", 12.0], ["租赁、转供电以及提供劳务收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.6, "ret_prev2_year": -6.4, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 68.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.1, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": -10.1, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 64, "hard": 81, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.1 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 46.5%、固定资产占比 50%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 50%、毛利率 46.5% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(航运港口:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.1 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 10% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "南京港:PE 比行业中位高 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}