{"F": {"ts_code": "002039.SZ", "name": "黔源电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20050303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.4, "pe_ttm": 11.7513, "pb": 1.8365, "dv_ttm": 2.5258, "total_mv": 829462.714, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.1, 53.7, 55.9, 51.6, 49.6, 56.2], "rev_series": [26.5, 20.4, 26.1, 19.9, 19.3, 32.9], "np_series": [4.4, 2.3, 4.1, 2.6, 2.2, 6.0], "roe_series": [14.8, 7.2, 11.9, 7.1, 5.6, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.1, "np_ttm": 7.1, "ocf_ttm": 25.2, "fcf_ttm": 21.7, "fcf_yield": 26.1, "ocf_yield": 30.3, "gm_median": 53.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 22.6, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 93.6, "fix_assets": 140.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 60.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 73.3, "payout": 31.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 13.2, "rev_yoy": 25.9, "np_yoy": 83.1, "np_vol": 83.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 13.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.0, "fwd_g1": -15.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["水力发电", 92.0], ["光伏发电", 8.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.9, "ret_prev2_year": 13.6, "ret_ytd": 9.1, "ret_pivot": 39.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -6.9, "ret_120": 4.1, "ret_250": 23.6, "mdd_250": -19.2, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 83.7}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 11.8 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 53.7%、固定资产占比 94%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 94%、毛利率 53.7% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 26.1%(经营现金流/市值 30.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 94%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.8 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "黔源电力:PE 比行业中位低 16.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.9个百分点。"]}}