{"F": {"ts_code": "002035.SZ", "name": "华帝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "厨卫电器", "sw3": "厨房电器", "ind": "厨卫电器", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.62, "pe_ttm": 19.3774, "pb": 1.0203, "dv_ttm": 4.2443, "total_mv": 391616.0094, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.1, 40.8, 39.5, 42.2, 40.7, 42.5], "rev_series": [43.6, 55.9, 58.2, 62.3, 63.7, 56.5], "np_series": [4.1, 2.1, 1.4, 4.5, 4.8, 3.0], "roe_series": [13.2, 6.5, 4.4, 12.9, 13.1, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 53.1, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 40.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.0, "fix_assets": 15.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 55.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": 28.1, "rev_yoy": -12.1, "np_yoy": -36.3, "np_vol": 97.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 11.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 67.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["烟机", 18.0], ["抽油烟机", 18.0], ["灶具", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.3, "ret_prev2_year": 26.4, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": -23.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -25.1, "ret_250": -28.4, "mdd_250": -34.0, "vol_250": 25.0, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 59, "hard": 38, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 55%、股息率 4.2%、营收 3 年复合 -1.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.8%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -4% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「厨卫电器」9 家中位:PE 16.5 / 股息率 3.9% / 毛利率 44.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 79%。", "华帝股份:PE 比行业中位高 2.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}