{"F": {"ts_code": "002031.SZ", "name": "巨轮智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.1996, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1178876.0952, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.3, 14.0, 13.4, 14.8, 11.6, 10.4], "rev_series": [16.8, 22.1, 9.9, 8.0, 9.8, 7.9], "np_series": [-1.6, -4.7, 0.4, -0.3, -2.1, -2.3], "roe_series": [-5.4, -17.6, 1.5, -1.3, -9.0, -11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": -2.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -12.9, "npm_median": -18.8, "roe_median": -9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 13.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.2, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 11.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 10.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -41.9, "np_yoy": -32.0, "np_vol": 233.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["轮胎模具", 17.0], ["模具制造", 17.0], ["硫化机", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.1, "ret_prev2_year": 20.0, "ret_ytd": -31.8, "ret_pivot": 95.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -6.8, "ret_120": -24.3, "ret_250": -37.2, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 55.4, "pos_52w": 56.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 57, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点;资产负债率 49%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -7% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "巨轮智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点。"]}}