{"F": {"ts_code": "002029.SZ", "name": "七匹狼", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.99, "pe_ttm": 43.7462, "pb": 0.9506, "dv_ttm": 1.0634, "total_mv": 633816.2164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.7, 46.2, 45.2, 49.9, 51.6, 54.4], "rev_series": [33.3, 35.1, 32.3, 34.4, 31.4, 30.0], "np_series": [2.1, 2.3, 1.5, 2.7, 2.8, 3.3], "roe_series": [3.5, 3.9, 2.5, 4.3, 4.4, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 49.9, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.8, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.95, "capex_dep": 1.23, "interest_debt": 15.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 28.3, "debt_mv": 24.6, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": 30.2, "rev_yoy": 2.9, "np_yoy": -117.0, "np_vol": 36.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.4, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 114.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 10.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["外套类", 7.0], ["外套", 7.0], ["其他类", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.4, "ret_prev2_year": 17.2, "ret_ytd": -17.7, "ret_pivot": 88.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": 10.9, "ret_120": -11.9, "ret_250": 19.7, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 57.3, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 67, "hard": 4, "bondness": 47}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 49.9%,自由现金流/市值 6.2%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.9%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 1.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 11% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "七匹狼:PE 比行业中位高 6.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点。"]}}