{"F": {"ts_code": "002028.SZ", "name": "思源电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 147.2, "pe_ttm": 34.6851, "pb": 7.0012, "dv_ttm": 0.4755, "total_mv": 11519478.711, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.3, 30.5, 26.3, 29.5, 31.2, 30.8], "rev_series": [73.7, 87.0, 105.4, 124.6, 154.6, 215.4], "np_series": [9.3, 12.0, 12.2, 15.6, 20.5, 31.5], "roe_series": [16.1, 16.1, 13.9, 15.9, 18.0, 22.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 238.4, "np_ttm": 33.2, "ocf_ttm": 31.7, "fcf_ttm": 23.5, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 30.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 36.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 7.0, "capex_dep": 3.0, "interest_debt": 8.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 49.2, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 18.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.9, "np_cagr3": 37.2, "rev_yoy": 27.0, "np_yoy": 13.2, "np_vol": 16.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 27.3, "fwd_pe2": 19.9, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["开关类业务", 40.0], ["变压器类业务", 21.0], ["储能系统及元件类业务", 13.0], ["保护及自动化类业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 115.2, "ret_prev2_year": 41.8, "ret_ytd": -4.3, "ret_pivot": 124.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -14.1, "ret_120": -30.1, "ret_250": 72.6, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 55.6, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 53, "hard": 18, "bondness": 10}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.7 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.5%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 3.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.7 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 73%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -14% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "思源电气:PE 比行业中位低 8.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}