{"F": {"ts_code": "002027.SZ", "name": "分众传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "广告媒体", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040804", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.88, "pe_ttm": 20.6704, "pb": 5.0376, "dv_ttm": 5.9426, "total_mv": 7047793.4536, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.2, 67.5, 59.7, 65.5, 66.3, 70.5], "rev_series": [121.0, 148.4, 94.2, 119.0, 122.6, 127.6], "np_series": [40.0, 60.6, 27.9, 48.3, 51.6, 29.5], "roe_series": [26.0, 34.3, 15.8, 27.9, 29.7, 18.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 126.4, "np_ttm": 34.1, "ocf_ttm": 82.6, "fcf_ttm": 77.1, "fcf_yield": 10.9, "ocf_yield": 11.7, "gm_median": 66.3, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 40.3, "roe_median": 27.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 5.04, "capex_dep": 2.79, "interest_debt": 27.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 98.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.6, "np_cagr3": 1.8, "rev_yoy": -2.0, "np_yoy": 17.4, "np_vol": 50.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 11.9, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 73.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 5.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["楼宇媒体", 94.0], ["影院媒体", 6.0], ["其他媒体及其他", 0.0], ["其他媒体", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.2, "ret_prev2_year": 21.6, "ret_ytd": -31.6, "ret_pivot": -0.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -4.3, "ret_120": -26.4, "ret_250": -37.3, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 27.2, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 71, "hard": 4, "bondness": 75}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 2%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 66.3%,稳定度 95%、ROE 近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "自由现金流/市值 10.9%,分红率 99%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 66.3%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 66.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.7 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -4% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "分众传媒:PE 比行业中位低 77.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 51.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点。"]}}