{"F": {"ts_code": "002025.SZ", "name": "航天电器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 64.18, "pe_ttm": 129.9521, "pb": 4.3659, "dv_ttm": 0.2026, "total_mv": 2913899.0764, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 32.6, 33.0, 38.0, 38.3, 30.6], "rev_series": [42.2, 50.4, 60.2, 62.1, 50.2, 58.2], "np_series": [4.3, 4.9, 5.6, 7.5, 3.5, 1.8], "roe_series": [13.5, 11.3, 10.2, 12.5, 5.4, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.5, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 33.0, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.37, "capex_dep": 1.48, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 33.3, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.1, "np_cagr3": -31.0, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": 47.7, "np_vol": 35.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 80.2, "fwd_pe2": 51.3, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["连接器及互连一体化产品", 36.0], ["电机与控制组件", 11.0], ["继电器", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.7, "ret_prev2_year": 1.9, "ret_ytd": 28.4, "ret_pivot": 46.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": 17.2, "ret_250": 22.1, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 62.6, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 55, "hard": 23, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(15 篇研报)前瞻 PE 80.2 倍,次年 51.3 倍,PEG 1.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / 17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "航天电器:PE 比行业中位高 51.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}