{"F": {"ts_code": "002016.SZ", "name": "世荣兆业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.75, "pe_ttm": 21.8306, "pb": 0.776, "dv_ttm": 0.3789, "total_mv": 384320.41, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.0, 67.4, 56.8, 40.4, 33.9, 29.0], "rev_series": [29.5, 23.8, 8.3, 15.5, 9.8, 15.8], "np_series": [8.3, 7.1, 1.4, 2.0, 0.4, 1.4], "roe_series": [23.1, 16.2, 3.1, 4.3, 0.8, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 12.2, "gm_median": 40.4, "gm_std": 14.4, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -11.2, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.9, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.78, "capex_dep": 5.41, "interest_debt": 15.6, "debt_ebitda": 7.6, "debt_ratio": 34.1, "debt_mv": 40.6, "payout": 10.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.9, "np_cagr3": -1.0, "rev_yoy": -36.3, "np_yoy": 252.9, "np_vol": 128.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["房地产", 15.0], ["商品房", 15.0], ["热能供应", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": -17.6, "ret_pivot": -22.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.7, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -17.7, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 32.5, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 46, "hard": 16, "bondness": 21}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 40.4%,自由现金流/市值 4.7%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 40.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.4%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 5.41 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.8 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 5% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "世荣兆业:PE 比行业中位低 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点。"]}}