{"F": {"ts_code": "002014.SZ", "name": "永新股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.54, "pe_ttm": 16.1035, "pb": 2.8327, "dv_ttm": 4.766, "total_mv": 706815.6526, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.4, 22.2, 22.2, 24.7, 23.8, 23.0], "rev_series": [27.4, 30.2, 33.0, 33.8, 35.3, 37.2], "np_series": [3.0, 3.2, 3.6, 4.1, 4.7, 4.4], "roe_series": [15.7, 15.3, 16.5, 17.2, 18.5, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.1, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.3, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.83, "capex_dep": 2.66, "interest_debt": 11.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 42.1, "debt_mv": 15.5, "payout": 81.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": 6.5, "rev_yoy": 11.0, "np_yoy": 0.4, "np_vol": 8.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 15.1, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["彩印包装材料", 68.0], ["塑料软包装薄膜", 22.0], ["油墨业务", 5.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.0, "ret_prev2_year": 47.7, "ret_ytd": -0.9, "ret_pivot": 59.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -3.1, "ret_250": 4.4, "mdd_250": -19.1, "vol_250": 24.1, "pos_52w": 92.0}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 51, "hard": 47, "bondness": 78}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 82%、股息率 4.8%、营收 3 年复合 4.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 2.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.1 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 9% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "永新股份:PE 比行业中位低 22.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}