{"F": {"ts_code": "002012.SZ", "name": "凯恩股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040705", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.08, "pe_ttm": 102.3667, "pb": 2.1239, "dv_ttm": 0.2966, "total_mv": 331078.854, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 25.4, 21.5, 16.9, 18.5, 17.4], "rev_series": [15.5, 18.3, 13.9, 8.3, 5.9, 6.3], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, 0.5, 0.5, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [7.0, 6.7, 3.6, 3.1, 0.4, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -12.4, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.3, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 9.2, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -23.3, "np_cagr3": -16.0, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": 5.7, "np_vol": 197.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["特种食品包装材料", 37.0], ["电气及工业用配套材料", 5.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.2, "ret_prev2_year": -7.4, "ret_ytd": 10.1, "ret_pivot": 91.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -0.7, "ret_250": 18.4, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 45.6, "pos_52w": 73.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 42, "hard": 7, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 102.4 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -0% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "凯恩股份:PE 比行业中位高 80.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 45.6个百分点。"]}}