{"F": {"ts_code": "002010.SZ", "name": "传化智联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "公路货运", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.58, "pe_ttm": 23.9293, "pb": 0.7015, "dv_ttm": 3.2751, "total_mv": 1265926.1522, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 9.9, 9.0, 10.6, 13.4, 15.0], "rev_series": [215.0, 353.9, 369.0, 335.8, 267.0, 250.8], "np_series": [15.2, 22.5, 7.4, 5.9, 1.5, 5.9], "roe_series": [10.3, 14.1, 4.3, 3.4, 0.9, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 207.6, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 7.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.8, "fix_assets": 30.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 0.7, "capex_dep": 2.98, "interest_debt": 140.5, "debt_ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 50.6, "debt_mv": 111.0, "payout": 70.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.1, "np_cagr3": -7.4, "rev_yoy": -35.5, "np_yoy": -11.9, "np_vol": 131.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 15.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["纺织印染助剂", 23.0], ["顺丁橡胶", 11.0], ["网络货运业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.4, "ret_prev2_year": 0.2, "ret_ytd": -19.8, "ret_pivot": 37.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -2.6, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": -25.3, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 29.2, "pos_52w": 65.3}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 38, "hard": 12, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 3.3%、营收 3 年复合 -12.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.9 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -3% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "传化智联:PE 比行业中位高 2.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}