{"F": {"ts_code": "002009.SZ", "name": "天奇股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.3, "pe_ttm": 149.356, "pb": 3.1802, "dv_ttm": 0.3067, "total_mv": 655640.116, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.6, 19.7, 17.5, 7.1, 11.8, 16.6], "rev_series": [35.9, 37.8, 43.5, 36.2, 29.6, 27.6], "np_series": [0.6, 1.5, 2.0, -4.1, -2.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [3.1, 7.5, 9.3, -19.3, -12.6, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.2, "fix_assets": 10.2, "goodwill_ratio": 6.4, "pb_calc": 3.18, "capex_dep": 2.0, "interest_debt": 18.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 63.7, "debt_mv": 28.5, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -14.0, "np_cagr3": -34.9, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": -19.3, "np_vol": 164.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智能装备业务：汽车智能装备业务", 16.0], ["其中：汽车智能装备", 16.0], ["锂电池循环事业部", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.8, "ret_prev2_year": 1.0, "ret_ytd": -27.8, "ret_pivot": 61.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -18.7, "ret_120": -37.1, "ret_250": -9.5, "mdd_250": -56.7, "vol_250": 57.2, "pos_52w": 45.5}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 41, "hard": 29, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 149 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 19 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 149.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -19% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "天奇股份:PE 比行业中位高 107.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}