{"F": {"ts_code": "002008.SZ", "name": "大族激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 87.67, "pe_ttm": 45.3709, "pb": 4.2059, "dv_ttm": 0.2281, "total_mv": 9026533.0078, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.1, 37.6, 35.2, 34.9, 31.8, 33.3], "rev_series": [119.4, 163.3, 149.6, 140.9, 147.7, 187.6], "np_series": [9.8, 19.9, 12.1, 8.2, 16.9, 11.9], "roe_series": [10.5, 18.7, 9.4, 5.6, 10.9, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 245.6, "np_ttm": 19.9, "ocf_ttm": 15.1, "fcf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.9, "fix_assets": 65.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 4.21, "capex_dep": 1.93, "interest_debt": 47.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 21.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": -0.6, "rev_yoy": 76.2, "np_yoy": 163.8, "np_vol": 68.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 33.3, "fwd_pe2": 21.5, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 0.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["其他智能制造装备", 46.0], ["PCB智能制造装备", 27.0], ["PCB及自动化配套设备", 27.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.6, "ret_prev2_year": 22.4, "ret_ytd": 113.9, "ret_pivot": 382.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": -27.8, "ret_120": 28.0, "ret_250": 147.0, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 68.2, "pos_52w": 57.4}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 54, "hard": 22, "bondness": 25}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 164%,PE TTM 45.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 33.3 倍,PEG 0.61。", "自由现金流 7.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 55%(14 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.9%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.4 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 147%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -28% / 28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "大族激光:PE 比行业中位低 32.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}