{"F": {"ts_code": "002007.SZ", "name": "华兰生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.04, "pe_ttm": 29.4679, "pb": 2.1699, "dv_ttm": 7.6724, "total_mv": 2380701.064, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.7, 68.7, 66.1, 69.6, 61.4, 57.5], "rev_series": [50.2, 44.4, 45.2, 53.4, 43.8, 46.0], "np_series": [16.1, 13.0, 10.8, 14.8, 10.9, 9.4], "roe_series": [22.9, 16.4, 11.5, 13.6, 9.4, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.6, "np_ttm": 8.1, "ocf_ttm": 9.9, "fcf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 66.1, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 27.6, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 29.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 12.7, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 36.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.6, "np_cagr3": -4.4, "rev_yoy": -12.9, "np_yoy": -25.7, "np_vol": 23.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 24.2, "fwd_pe2": 22.0, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 2.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["人血白蛋白", 20.0], ["其他血液制品", 15.0], ["静注丙球", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.5, "ret_prev2_year": -24.1, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 1.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": -20.3, "mdd_250": -27.5, "vol_250": 22.5, "pos_52w": 78.0}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 69, "hard": 32, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.5 倍、股息率 7.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 66.1%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 66.1%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 66.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.5 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 3% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "华兰生物:PE 比行业中位低 2.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}