{"F": {"ts_code": "002001.SZ", "name": "新和成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.86, "pe_ttm": 11.511, "pb": 2.3667, "dv_ttm": 3.7164, "total_mv": 8255210.6862, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.2, 44.5, 36.9, 33.0, 41.8, 44.7], "rev_series": [103.1, 148.0, 159.3, 151.2, 216.1, 222.5], "np_series": [35.6, 43.2, 36.2, 27.0, 58.7, 67.6], "roe_series": [19.7, 21.0, 16.0, 11.2, 21.7, 21.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 242.8, "np_ttm": 71.7, "ocf_ttm": 91.9, "fcf_ttm": 65.6, "fcf_yield": 7.9, "ocf_yield": 11.1, "gm_median": 41.8, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -17.2, "npm_median": 27.3, "roe_median": 21.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.0, "fix_assets": 205.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 1.19, "interest_debt": 73.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 25.0, "debt_mv": 8.9, "payout": 45.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": 23.2, "rev_yoy": 18.3, "np_yoy": 11.3, "np_vol": 50.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.7, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 10.1, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["营养品", 54.0], ["香精香料类", 12.0], ["香精香料", 12.0], ["新材料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.3, "ret_prev2_year": 36.9, "ret_ytd": 10.1, "ret_pivot": 56.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -8.7, "ret_120": -29.1, "ret_250": 14.5, "mdd_250": -31.6, "vol_250": 38.3, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 56, "hard": 70, "bondness": 48}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 205 亿,占总资产 44%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 41.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.2 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 7.9%,股息率 3.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 57%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 44%)和定价权(毛利率 41.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.19 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.5 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -9% / -29%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "新和成:PE 比行业中位低 24.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点。"]}}