{"F": {"ts_code": "001979.SZ", "name": "招商蛇口", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "商业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.97, "pe_ttm": 606.26, "pb": 0.6448, "dv_ttm": 0.7331, "total_mv": 6284174.4434, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 25.5, 19.3, 15.9, 14.6, 13.8], "rev_series": [1296.2, 1606.4, 1830.0, 1750.1, 1789.5, 1547.3], "np_series": [122.5, 103.7, 42.6, 63.2, 40.4, 10.2], "roe_series": [12.5, 9.9, 4.1, 5.7, 3.5, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1580.3, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 358.3, "fcf_ttm": 328.5, "fcf_yield": 52.3, "ocf_yield": 57.0, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.0, "fix_assets": 82.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.64, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 2436.4, "debt_ebitda": 22.8, "debt_ratio": 67.4, "debt_mv": 387.7, "payout": 52.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": -37.8, "rev_yoy": 6.4, "np_yoy": -63.5, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": 42.5, "fwd_pe2": 30.1, "fwd_g1": 1325.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["开发业务", 38.0], ["物业服务", 8.0], ["资产运营", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.1, "ret_prev2_year": 11.5, "ret_ytd": -18.8, "ret_pivot": -25.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": -15.2, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": -25.5, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 2, "bondness": 58}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 606.3 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(26 篇研报)前瞻 PE 42.5 倍,次年 30.1 倍,PEG 1.01。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 52.3%(经营现金流/市值 57.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 606.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -15% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "招商蛇口:PE 比行业中位高 580.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}