{"F": {"ts_code": "001965.SZ", "name": "招商公路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.8, "pe_ttm": 14.1335, "pb": 0.9693, "dv_ttm": 3.8061, "total_mv": 6659193.1, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.9, 41.4, 35.1, 37.0, 34.1, 29.8], "rev_series": [70.7, 86.3, 83.0, 97.3, 127.1, 133.6], "np_series": [22.2, 49.7, 48.6, 67.7, 53.2, 46.1], "roe_series": [4.3, 8.8, 8.2, 10.8, 7.8, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 148.8, "np_ttm": 47.1, "ocf_ttm": 63.5, "fcf_ttm": 43.0, "fcf_yield": 6.5, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 35.1, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 63.3, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.6, "fix_assets": 26.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.88, "capex_dep": 8.93, "interest_debt": 513.6, "debt_ebitda": 7.6, "debt_ratio": 43.3, "debt_mv": 77.1, "payout": 54.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.2, "np_cagr3": -1.7, "rev_yoy": 26.9, "np_yoy": 4.1, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.1, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 13.3, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 4.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["投资运营板块", 22.0], ["投资运营业务", 22.0], ["改扩建业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.2, "ret_prev2_year": 55.8, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": -12.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": 0.8, "ret_250": -8.5, "mdd_250": -22.7, "vol_250": 22.7, "pos_52w": 90.8}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 56, "hard": 3, "bondness": 60}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 54%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 17.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.1%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 8.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.1 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "招商公路:PE 比行业中位低 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.4个百分点。"]}}